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Author Archives: Roy Van Til
Bombing as a reality TV show
Trump will make sure no Syrian will find sanctuary in the USA…not even the families of the dead children he used so callously to boost his historically hideous poll numbers Continue reading
Title: Much Ado about Nothing…presidents and the economy 1977-2016
Abstract:
Four decades have passed since the election of President Jimmy Carter. Those forty years have featured dramatic episodes featuring cyclical real economic growth, interspersed with short periods of stagnation, stagflation and recession. The fluctuations raised havoc with the stock market, interest rates, and the major economic indicators of gross national product, unemployment, and inflation. It has been quite a ride.
It is useful to break down the data according to the political party in charge of the White House to see what effect the political affiliation of the president has had, if any, on ten critical measures of wellbeing in the largest economy in history. This research shows that the conventional wisdom has been surprisingly undependable throughout the era, for the difference in performance between the parties has been much smaller than investors and other citizens believe to be the case, and often the facts prove the opposite of expected outcomes. And the movements in the key economic indicators are determined more often by deeper global, systemic, and psychological factors than they are affected by the outcome of one quadrennial election in this country. As one fifth of global productive power, the US is enormous in economic clout. However, its citizens often forget that it contains less than 5% of the population of the planet.
Often the rancorous debates as the roller coaster alternately soared and plunged have been “much ado about nothing.” In the play referred to, Shakespeare wrote, “I wish my horse had the speed of your tongue.” The raging debates on the economy during the last four decades have paid nothing but lip service to the truth. Continue reading
Posted in Politics
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Eastward Ho! Gold Migrates to the Middle Kingdom
Abstract: Barring force majeure events, the die is cast for the twenty-first century: China is on the verge of resuming its role as the largest economy on earth, a position it held for the millennia before the industrial revolution thrust England ahead by 1820 and then boosted America into global economic primacy after 1871 at the dawn of the American Century. Best estimates for GDP at current prices in 2016 by Knoema show the US with $18.56T over China’s $11.39T. At current long-term growth rates, it is projected to race past the US at the $22T mark in less than ten years, depending on exchange rates. The Economist predicts this could happen as early as 2021, despite the recent slowdown in China and America’s robust growth. Indeed, in terms of purchasing power parity or “PPP” measures, China already has the edge with $21.27T over the US with $18.56T. And it is already decisively #1 in heavy manufacturing and construction.
Accompanying this change in economic leadership is a migration of the physical gold industry toward China, as that huge economy likely solidifies its position as the world’s greatest producer and demander of gold. For a number of powerful geopolitical, economic and financial reasons, there is a resurgence of global interest in physical gold for investment purposes that is inevitably tightening up and rationalizing the precious metals marketplace. The institutions of the precious metals industry appear to be gravitating inexorably toward China, known in Mandarin as zhōng guó, translated as the “Center of Civilization” or the “Middle Kingdom”. Living up to its name and fulfilling its destiny, China may soon reclaim its position at the epicenter of world economic power, and it appears that gold could play a significant role in the story. What goes around seems to be coming around, as the cliché goes.
This impartial and objective article presents a scenario suggesting and highlighting a potential but altogether plausible outcome. There is no intention to forecast with any degree of certainty, for such hubris is unwise in an uncertain world. Continue reading
Posted in Economics/Geopolitics, Gold industry, Politics
Tagged China, Gold, Investment
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Titanic Failure..…debunking conspiracies about physical gold and the iceberg
Abstract
The tenor of the times is rife with suspicion at every turn. With richly embroidered theories of dastardly conspiracies, the popular press and blogosphere are awash with rumors, innuendo, internecine plots, and nefarious scenarios circling around the gold industry that are reminiscent of the firestorm of thus far unproven conjectures about the Titanic, the JFK assassination, and 9/11. In this casual essay, a comparison is made between the epic maritime disaster in 1912 to the recent worries voiced by so many potential investors and ordinary citizens about manipulation of the gold and currency markets. The sobering conclusion is that bad things often happen without any tinge of conspiracy, whenever events and financial structures conspire to cause mayhem. Humankind must always be alert to the possibility of an unscripted chain of causality that can deliver a serious blow to any system or technology designed by imperfect mortals. Continue reading
Posted in Economics/Geopolitics, Gold industry, mortality, Politics
Tagged Gold, Titanic disaster
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Pledge of Allegiance…reconsidered
Dear Fellow Americans: In light of the stunning Zimmerman acquittal, and long after the fact that O.J. Simpson walked out a free man for a long period after his victims lost their lives, and considering the secret U.S. drone attacks … Continue reading
The Yunger Games
Hello Time Travelers, Based on the number of laps of the sun completed, each of us has the high honor to participate in the annual “Yunger Games”. Congratulations to us all. I assume everyone in the Class of ’62 is enduring … Continue reading
The Best Ever?…or The Best So Far?
The Best Ever…or the Best So Far? …The pitfalls of a rush to judgment I did get up (actually I also stayed up all night waiting for it to begin) for every stroke of that amazing battle between the two … Continue reading
Raging at Aging: The Wolfe is always at the door
or the last 45 years I had not exchanged a word with him in person or through letters or on the Internet. Yet the cold, immutable news of his passing hit me hard. And it was more than the shiver of mortality that becomes all too familiar to us all as the earth performs its graceful revolutions. Continue reading
Protected: Jay Kool, Ph.D. and Mr. Ride, WTF
There is no excerpt because this is a protected post.
Posted in mortality, pop culture
Tagged conformity, divisions in society, intolerance, personality, stereotypes
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Casey Stengel Haunts the World Cup
Sometimes but actually very rarely in the world of sports there is an impossible result. No matter how unbalanced the talent or execution, in some sports such as ice hockey or soccer or baseball and a very few others where blind luck can play a monstrous and often sadistic role in reversing the expected outcome, the fates do seem to take over and the legends are created. Continue reading
Voyages of a Flying Dutchman...................... blog by Roy Van Til of Vienna, Maine 